I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves.
People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting.
The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.
By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes.
I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.
You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.
Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis.
When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there.
Every day, three times per second, we produce the equivalent of the amount of data that the Library of Congress has in its entire print collection, right? But most of it is like cat videos on YouTube or 13-year-olds exchanging text messages about the next Twilight movie.
Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.
If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.
To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.